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 * Licensed to the Apache Software Foundation (ASF) under one or more
 * contributor license agreements.  See the NOTICE file distributed with
 * this work for additional information regarding copyright ownership.
 * The ASF licenses this file to You under the Apache License, Version 2.0
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 *      http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
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package org.apache.commons.math3.stat.regression;
import java.io.Serializable;

import org.apache.commons.math3.distribution.TDistribution;
import org.apache.commons.math3.exception.MathIllegalArgumentException;
import org.apache.commons.math3.exception.NoDataException;
import org.apache.commons.math3.exception.OutOfRangeException;
import org.apache.commons.math3.exception.util.LocalizedFormats;
import org.apache.commons.math3.util.FastMath;
import org.apache.commons.math3.util.Precision;

/**
 * Estimates an ordinary least squares regression model
 * with one independent variable.
 * 

* y = intercept + slope * x

*

* Standard errors for intercept and slope are * available as well as ANOVA, r-square and Pearson's r statistics.

*

* Observations (x,y pairs) can be added to the model one at a time or they * can be provided in a 2-dimensional array. The observations are not stored * in memory, so there is no limit to the number of observations that can be * added to the model.

*

* Usage Notes:

    *
  • When there are fewer than two observations in the model, or when * there is no variation in the x values (i.e. all x values are the same) * all statistics return NaN. At least two observations with * different x coordinates are required to estimate a bivariate regression * model. *
  • *
  • Getters for the statistics always compute values based on the current * set of observations -- i.e., you can get statistics, then add more data * and get updated statistics without using a new instance. There is no * "compute" method that updates all statistics. Each of the getters performs * the necessary computations to return the requested statistic. *
  • *
  • The intercept term may be suppressed by passing {@code false} to * the {@link #SimpleRegression(boolean)} constructor. When the * {@code hasIntercept} property is false, the model is estimated without a * constant term and {@link #getIntercept()} returns {@code 0}.
  • *

* */ public class SimpleRegression implements Serializable, UpdatingMultipleLinearRegression { /** Serializable version identifier */ private static final long serialVersionUID = -3004689053607543335L; /** sum of x values */ private double sumX = 0d; /** total variation in x (sum of squared deviations from xbar) */ private double sumXX = 0d; /** sum of y values */ private double sumY = 0d; /** total variation in y (sum of squared deviations from ybar) */ private double sumYY = 0d; /** sum of products */ private double sumXY = 0d; /** number of observations */ private long n = 0; /** mean of accumulated x values, used in updating formulas */ private double xbar = 0; /** mean of accumulated y values, used in updating formulas */ private double ybar = 0; /** include an intercept or not */ private final boolean hasIntercept; // ---------------------Public methods-------------------------------------- /** * Create an empty SimpleRegression instance */ public SimpleRegression() { this(true); } /** * Create a SimpleRegression instance, specifying whether or not to estimate * an intercept. * *

Use {@code false} to estimate a model with no intercept. When the * {@code hasIntercept} property is false, the model is estimated without a * constant term and {@link #getIntercept()} returns {@code 0}.

* * @param includeIntercept whether or not to include an intercept term in * the regression model */ public SimpleRegression(boolean includeIntercept) { super(); hasIntercept = includeIntercept; } /** * Adds the observation (x,y) to the regression data set. *

* Uses updating formulas for means and sums of squares defined in * "Algorithms for Computing the Sample Variance: Analysis and * Recommendations", Chan, T.F., Golub, G.H., and LeVeque, R.J. * 1983, American Statistician, vol. 37, pp. 242-247, referenced in * Weisberg, S. "Applied Linear Regression". 2nd Ed. 1985.

* * * @param x independent variable value * @param y dependent variable value */ public void addData(final double x,final double y) { if (n == 0) { xbar = x; ybar = y; } else { if( hasIntercept ){ final double fact1 = 1.0 + n; final double fact2 = n / (1.0 + n); final double dx = x - xbar; final double dy = y - ybar; sumXX += dx * dx * fact2; sumYY += dy * dy * fact2; sumXY += dx * dy * fact2; xbar += dx / fact1; ybar += dy / fact1; } } if( !hasIntercept ){ sumXX += x * x ; sumYY += y * y ; sumXY += x * y ; } sumX += x; sumY += y; n++; } /** * Appends data from another regression calculation to this one. * *

The mean update formulae are based on a paper written by Philippe * Pébay: * * Formulas for Robust, One-Pass Parallel Computation of Covariances and * Arbitrary-Order Statistical Moments, 2008, Technical Report * SAND2008-6212, Sandia National Laboratories.

* * @param reg model to append data from * @since 3.3 */ public void append(SimpleRegression reg) { if (n == 0) { xbar = reg.xbar; ybar = reg.ybar; sumXX = reg.sumXX; sumYY = reg.sumYY; sumXY = reg.sumXY; } else { if (hasIntercept) { final double fact1 = reg.n / (double) (reg.n + n); final double fact2 = n * reg.n / (double) (reg.n + n); final double dx = reg.xbar - xbar; final double dy = reg.ybar - ybar; sumXX += reg.sumXX + dx * dx * fact2; sumYY += reg.sumYY + dy * dy * fact2; sumXY += reg.sumXY + dx * dy * fact2; xbar += dx * fact1; ybar += dy * fact1; }else{ sumXX += reg.sumXX; sumYY += reg.sumYY; sumXY += reg.sumXY; } } sumX += reg.sumX; sumY += reg.sumY; n += reg.n; } /** * Removes the observation (x,y) from the regression data set. *

* Mirrors the addData method. This method permits the use of * SimpleRegression instances in streaming mode where the regression * is applied to a sliding "window" of observations, however the caller is * responsible for maintaining the set of observations in the window.

* * The method has no effect if there are no points of data (i.e. n=0) * * @param x independent variable value * @param y dependent variable value */ public void removeData(final double x,final double y) { if (n > 0) { if (hasIntercept) { final double fact1 = n - 1.0; final double fact2 = n / (n - 1.0); final double dx = x - xbar; final double dy = y - ybar; sumXX -= dx * dx * fact2; sumYY -= dy * dy * fact2; sumXY -= dx * dy * fact2; xbar -= dx / fact1; ybar -= dy / fact1; } else { final double fact1 = n - 1.0; sumXX -= x * x; sumYY -= y * y; sumXY -= x * y; xbar -= x / fact1; ybar -= y / fact1; } sumX -= x; sumY -= y; n--; } } /** * Adds the observations represented by the elements in * data. *

* (data[0][0],data[0][1]) will be the first observation, then * (data[1][0],data[1][1]), etc.

*

* This method does not replace data that has already been added. The * observations represented by data are added to the existing * dataset.

*

* To replace all data, use clear() before adding the new * data.

* * @param data array of observations to be added * @throws ModelSpecificationException if the length of {@code data[i]} is not * greater than or equal to 2 */ public void addData(final double[][] data) throws ModelSpecificationException { for (int i = 0; i < data.length; i++) { if( data[i].length < 2 ){ throw new ModelSpecificationException(LocalizedFormats.INVALID_REGRESSION_OBSERVATION, data[i].length, 2); } addData(data[i][0], data[i][1]); } } /** * Adds one observation to the regression model. * * @param x the independent variables which form the design matrix * @param y the dependent or response variable * @throws ModelSpecificationException if the length of {@code x} does not equal * the number of independent variables in the model */ public void addObservation(final double[] x,final double y) throws ModelSpecificationException { if( x == null || x.length == 0 ){ throw new ModelSpecificationException(LocalizedFormats.INVALID_REGRESSION_OBSERVATION,x!=null?x.length:0, 1); } addData( x[0], y ); } /** * Adds a series of observations to the regression model. The lengths of * x and y must be the same and x must be rectangular. * * @param x a series of observations on the independent variables * @param y a series of observations on the dependent variable * The length of x and y must be the same * @throws ModelSpecificationException if {@code x} is not rectangular, does not match * the length of {@code y} or does not contain sufficient data to estimate the model */ public void addObservations(final double[][] x,final double[] y) throws ModelSpecificationException { if ((x == null) || (y == null) || (x.length != y.length)) { throw new ModelSpecificationException( LocalizedFormats.DIMENSIONS_MISMATCH_SIMPLE, (x == null) ? 0 : x.length, (y == null) ? 0 : y.length); } boolean obsOk=true; for( int i = 0 ; i < x.length; i++){ if( x[i] == null || x[i].length == 0 ){ obsOk = false; } } if( !obsOk ){ throw new ModelSpecificationException( LocalizedFormats.NOT_ENOUGH_DATA_FOR_NUMBER_OF_PREDICTORS, 0, 1); } for( int i = 0 ; i < x.length ; i++){ addData( x[i][0], y[i] ); } } /** * Removes observations represented by the elements in data. *

* If the array is larger than the current n, only the first n elements are * processed. This method permits the use of SimpleRegression instances in * streaming mode where the regression is applied to a sliding "window" of * observations, however the caller is responsible for maintaining the set * of observations in the window.

*

* To remove all data, use clear().

* * @param data array of observations to be removed */ public void removeData(double[][] data) { for (int i = 0; i < data.length && n > 0; i++) { removeData(data[i][0], data[i][1]); } } /** * Clears all data from the model. */ public void clear() { sumX = 0d; sumXX = 0d; sumY = 0d; sumYY = 0d; sumXY = 0d; n = 0; } /** * Returns the number of observations that have been added to the model. * * @return n number of observations that have been added. */ public long getN() { return n; } /** * Returns the "predicted" y value associated with the * supplied x value, based on the data that has been * added to the model when this method is activated. *

* predict(x) = intercept + slope * x

*

* Preconditions:

    *
  • At least two observations (with at least two different x values) * must have been added before invoking this method. If this method is * invoked before a model can be estimated, Double,NaN is * returned. *

* * @param x input x value * @return predicted y value */ public double predict(final double x) { final double b1 = getSlope(); if (hasIntercept) { return getIntercept(b1) + b1 * x; } return b1 * x; } /** * Returns the intercept of the estimated regression line, if * {@link #hasIntercept()} is true; otherwise 0. *

* The least squares estimate of the intercept is computed using the * normal equations. * The intercept is sometimes denoted b0.

*

* Preconditions:

    *
  • At least two observations (with at least two different x values) * must have been added before invoking this method. If this method is * invoked before a model can be estimated, Double,NaN is * returned. *

* * @return the intercept of the regression line if the model includes an * intercept; 0 otherwise * @see #SimpleRegression(boolean) */ public double getIntercept() { return hasIntercept ? getIntercept(getSlope()) : 0.0; } /** * Returns true if the model includes an intercept term. * * @return true if the regression includes an intercept; false otherwise * @see #SimpleRegression(boolean) */ public boolean hasIntercept() { return hasIntercept; } /** * Returns the slope of the estimated regression line. *

* The least squares estimate of the slope is computed using the * normal equations. * The slope is sometimes denoted b1.

*

* Preconditions:

    *
  • At least two observations (with at least two different x values) * must have been added before invoking this method. If this method is * invoked before a model can be estimated, Double.NaN is * returned. *

* * @return the slope of the regression line */ public double getSlope() { if (n < 2) { return Double.NaN; //not enough data } if (FastMath.abs(sumXX) < 10 * Double.MIN_VALUE) { return Double.NaN; //not enough variation in x } return sumXY / sumXX; } /** * Returns the * sum of squared errors (SSE) associated with the regression * model. *

* The sum is computed using the computational formula

*

* SSE = SYY - (SXY * SXY / SXX)

*

* where SYY is the sum of the squared deviations of the y * values about their mean, SXX is similarly defined and * SXY is the sum of the products of x and y mean deviations. *

* The sums are accumulated using the updating algorithm referenced in * {@link #addData}.

*

* The return value is constrained to be non-negative - i.e., if due to * rounding errors the computational formula returns a negative result, * 0 is returned.

*

* Preconditions:

    *
  • At least two observations (with at least two different x values) * must have been added before invoking this method. If this method is * invoked before a model can be estimated, Double,NaN is * returned. *

* * @return sum of squared errors associated with the regression model */ public double getSumSquaredErrors() { return FastMath.max(0d, sumYY - sumXY * sumXY / sumXX); } /** * Returns the sum of squared deviations of the y values about their mean. *

* This is defined as SSTO * here.

*

* If n < 2, this returns Double.NaN.

* * @return sum of squared deviations of y values */ public double getTotalSumSquares() { if (n < 2) { return Double.NaN; } return sumYY; } /** * Returns the sum of squared deviations of the x values about their mean. * * If n < 2, this returns Double.NaN.

* * @return sum of squared deviations of x values */ public double getXSumSquares() { if (n < 2) { return Double.NaN; } return sumXX; } /** * Returns the sum of crossproducts, xi*yi. * * @return sum of cross products */ public double getSumOfCrossProducts() { return sumXY; } /** * Returns the sum of squared deviations of the predicted y values about * their mean (which equals the mean of y). *

* This is usually abbreviated SSR or SSM. It is defined as SSM * here

*

* Preconditions:

    *
  • At least two observations (with at least two different x values) * must have been added before invoking this method. If this method is * invoked before a model can be estimated, Double.NaN is * returned. *

* * @return sum of squared deviations of predicted y values */ public double getRegressionSumSquares() { return getRegressionSumSquares(getSlope()); } /** * Returns the sum of squared errors divided by the degrees of freedom, * usually abbreviated MSE. *

* If there are fewer than three data pairs in the model, * or if there is no variation in x, this returns * Double.NaN.

* * @return sum of squared deviations of y values */ public double getMeanSquareError() { if (n < 3) { return Double.NaN; } return hasIntercept ? (getSumSquaredErrors() / (n - 2)) : (getSumSquaredErrors() / (n - 1)); } /** * Returns * Pearson's product moment correlation coefficient, * usually denoted r. *

* Preconditions:

    *
  • At least two observations (with at least two different x values) * must have been added before invoking this method. If this method is * invoked before a model can be estimated, Double,NaN is * returned. *

* * @return Pearson's r */ public double getR() { double b1 = getSlope(); double result = FastMath.sqrt(getRSquare()); if (b1 < 0) { result = -result; } return result; } /** * Returns the * coefficient of determination, * usually denoted r-square. *

* Preconditions:

    *
  • At least two observations (with at least two different x values) * must have been added before invoking this method. If this method is * invoked before a model can be estimated, Double,NaN is * returned. *

* * @return r-square */ public double getRSquare() { double ssto = getTotalSumSquares(); return (ssto - getSumSquaredErrors()) / ssto; } /** * Returns the * standard error of the intercept estimate, * usually denoted s(b0). *

* If there are fewer that three observations in the * model, or if there is no variation in x, this returns * Double.NaN.

Additionally, a Double.NaN is * returned when the intercept is constrained to be zero * * @return standard error associated with intercept estimate */ public double getInterceptStdErr() { if( !hasIntercept ){ return Double.NaN; } return FastMath.sqrt( getMeanSquareError() * ((1d / n) + (xbar * xbar) / sumXX)); } /** * Returns the standard * error of the slope estimate, * usually denoted s(b1). *

* If there are fewer that three data pairs in the model, * or if there is no variation in x, this returns Double.NaN. *

* * @return standard error associated with slope estimate */ public double getSlopeStdErr() { return FastMath.sqrt(getMeanSquareError() / sumXX); } /** * Returns the half-width of a 95% confidence interval for the slope * estimate. *

* The 95% confidence interval is

*

* (getSlope() - getSlopeConfidenceInterval(), * getSlope() + getSlopeConfidenceInterval())

*

* If there are fewer that three observations in the * model, or if there is no variation in x, this returns * Double.NaN.

*

* Usage Note:
* The validity of this statistic depends on the assumption that the * observations included in the model are drawn from a * * Bivariate Normal Distribution.

* * @return half-width of 95% confidence interval for the slope estimate * @throws OutOfRangeException if the confidence interval can not be computed. */ public double getSlopeConfidenceInterval() throws OutOfRangeException { return getSlopeConfidenceInterval(0.05d); } /** * Returns the half-width of a (100-100*alpha)% confidence interval for * the slope estimate. *

* The (100-100*alpha)% confidence interval is

*

* (getSlope() - getSlopeConfidenceInterval(), * getSlope() + getSlopeConfidenceInterval())

*

* To request, for example, a 99% confidence interval, use * alpha = .01

*

* Usage Note:
* The validity of this statistic depends on the assumption that the * observations included in the model are drawn from a * * Bivariate Normal Distribution.

*

* Preconditions:

    *
  • If there are fewer that three observations in the * model, or if there is no variation in x, this returns * Double.NaN. *
  • *
  • (0 < alpha < 1); otherwise an * OutOfRangeException is thrown. *

* * @param alpha the desired significance level * @return half-width of 95% confidence interval for the slope estimate * @throws OutOfRangeException if the confidence interval can not be computed. */ public double getSlopeConfidenceInterval(final double alpha) throws OutOfRangeException { if (n < 3) { return Double.NaN; } if (alpha >= 1 || alpha <= 0) { throw new OutOfRangeException(LocalizedFormats.SIGNIFICANCE_LEVEL, alpha, 0, 1); } // No advertised NotStrictlyPositiveException here - will return NaN above TDistribution distribution = new TDistribution(n - 2); return getSlopeStdErr() * distribution.inverseCumulativeProbability(1d - alpha / 2d); } /** * Returns the significance level of the slope (equiv) correlation. *

* Specifically, the returned value is the smallest alpha * such that the slope confidence interval with significance level * equal to alpha does not include 0. * On regression output, this is often denoted Prob(|t| > 0) *

* Usage Note:
* The validity of this statistic depends on the assumption that the * observations included in the model are drawn from a * * Bivariate Normal Distribution.

*

* If there are fewer that three observations in the * model, or if there is no variation in x, this returns * Double.NaN.

* * @return significance level for slope/correlation * @throws org.apache.commons.math3.exception.MaxCountExceededException * if the significance level can not be computed. */ public double getSignificance() { if (n < 3) { return Double.NaN; } // No advertised NotStrictlyPositiveException here - will return NaN above TDistribution distribution = new TDistribution(n - 2); return 2d * (1.0 - distribution.cumulativeProbability( FastMath.abs(getSlope()) / getSlopeStdErr())); } // ---------------------Private methods----------------------------------- /** * Returns the intercept of the estimated regression line, given the slope. *

* Will return NaN if slope is NaN.

* * @param slope current slope * @return the intercept of the regression line */ private double getIntercept(final double slope) { if( hasIntercept){ return (sumY - slope * sumX) / n; } return 0.0; } /** * Computes SSR from b1. * * @param slope regression slope estimate * @return sum of squared deviations of predicted y values */ private double getRegressionSumSquares(final double slope) { return slope * slope * sumXX; } /** * Performs a regression on data present in buffers and outputs a RegressionResults object. * *

If there are fewer than 3 observations in the model and {@code hasIntercept} is true * a {@code NoDataException} is thrown. If there is no intercept term, the model must * contain at least 2 observations.

* * @return RegressionResults acts as a container of regression output * @throws ModelSpecificationException if the model is not correctly specified * @throws NoDataException if there is not sufficient data in the model to * estimate the regression parameters */ public RegressionResults regress() throws ModelSpecificationException, NoDataException { if (hasIntercept) { if (n < 3) { throw new NoDataException(LocalizedFormats.NOT_ENOUGH_DATA_REGRESSION); } if (FastMath.abs(sumXX) > Precision.SAFE_MIN) { final double[] params = new double[] { getIntercept(), getSlope() }; final double mse = getMeanSquareError(); final double _syy = sumYY + sumY * sumY / n; final double[] vcv = new double[] { mse * (xbar * xbar / sumXX + 1.0 / n), -xbar * mse / sumXX, mse / sumXX }; return new RegressionResults(params, new double[][] { vcv }, true, n, 2, sumY, _syy, getSumSquaredErrors(), true, false); } else { final double[] params = new double[] { sumY / n, Double.NaN }; // final double mse = getMeanSquareError(); final double[] vcv = new double[] { ybar / (n - 1.0), Double.NaN, Double.NaN }; return new RegressionResults(params, new double[][] { vcv }, true, n, 1, sumY, sumYY, getSumSquaredErrors(), true, false); } } else { if (n < 2) { throw new NoDataException(LocalizedFormats.NOT_ENOUGH_DATA_REGRESSION); } if (!Double.isNaN(sumXX)) { final double[] vcv = new double[] { getMeanSquareError() / sumXX }; final double[] params = new double[] { sumXY / sumXX }; return new RegressionResults(params, new double[][] { vcv }, true, n, 1, sumY, sumYY, getSumSquaredErrors(), false, false); } else { final double[] vcv = new double[] { Double.NaN }; final double[] params = new double[] { Double.NaN }; return new RegressionResults(params, new double[][] { vcv }, true, n, 1, Double.NaN, Double.NaN, Double.NaN, false, false); } } } /** * Performs a regression on data present in buffers including only regressors * indexed in variablesToInclude and outputs a RegressionResults object * @param variablesToInclude an array of indices of regressors to include * @return RegressionResults acts as a container of regression output * @throws MathIllegalArgumentException if the variablesToInclude array is null or zero length * @throws OutOfRangeException if a requested variable is not present in model */ public RegressionResults regress(int[] variablesToInclude) throws MathIllegalArgumentException{ if( variablesToInclude == null || variablesToInclude.length == 0){ throw new MathIllegalArgumentException(LocalizedFormats.ARRAY_ZERO_LENGTH_OR_NULL_NOT_ALLOWED); } if( variablesToInclude.length > 2 || (variablesToInclude.length > 1 && !hasIntercept) ){ throw new ModelSpecificationException( LocalizedFormats.ARRAY_SIZE_EXCEEDS_MAX_VARIABLES, (variablesToInclude.length > 1 && !hasIntercept) ? 1 : 2); } if( hasIntercept ){ if( variablesToInclude.length == 2 ){ if( variablesToInclude[0] == 1 ){ throw new ModelSpecificationException(LocalizedFormats.NOT_INCREASING_SEQUENCE); }else if( variablesToInclude[0] != 0 ){ throw new OutOfRangeException( variablesToInclude[0], 0,1 ); } if( variablesToInclude[1] != 1){ throw new OutOfRangeException( variablesToInclude[0], 0,1 ); } return regress(); }else{ if( variablesToInclude[0] != 1 && variablesToInclude[0] != 0 ){ throw new OutOfRangeException( variablesToInclude[0],0,1 ); } final double _mean = sumY * sumY / n; final double _syy = sumYY + _mean; if( variablesToInclude[0] == 0 ){ //just the mean final double[] vcv = new double[]{ sumYY/(((n-1)*n)) }; final double[] params = new double[]{ ybar }; return new RegressionResults( params, new double[][]{vcv}, true, n, 1, sumY, _syy+_mean, sumYY,true,false); }else if( variablesToInclude[0] == 1){ //final double _syy = sumYY + sumY * sumY / ((double) n); final double _sxx = sumXX + sumX * sumX / n; final double _sxy = sumXY + sumX * sumY / n; final double _sse = FastMath.max(0d, _syy - _sxy * _sxy / _sxx); final double _mse = _sse/((n-1)); if( !Double.isNaN(_sxx) ){ final double[] vcv = new double[]{ _mse / _sxx }; final double[] params = new double[]{ _sxy/_sxx }; return new RegressionResults( params, new double[][]{vcv}, true, n, 1, sumY, _syy, _sse,false,false); }else{ final double[] vcv = new double[]{Double.NaN }; final double[] params = new double[]{ Double.NaN }; return new RegressionResults( params, new double[][]{vcv}, true, n, 1, Double.NaN, Double.NaN, Double.NaN,false,false); } } } }else{ if( variablesToInclude[0] != 0 ){ throw new OutOfRangeException(variablesToInclude[0],0,0); } return regress(); } return null; } }




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