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Updated: New York , Oct 08 07:31 London , Oct 08 12:31 Tokyo , Oct 08 20:31 RESOURCES Dion Support Grows, May Deny Harper a Canada Majority (Update1) By Greg Quinn and Theophilos Argitis Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's opposition Liberal Party is gaining on 's Conservatives in opinion polls a week before elections, signaling the country may have its third straight government without control of Parliament. 's Liberals trail by 5 percentage points in the latest daily poll by Nanos Research, compared with an 11- point shortfall on Oct. 2. The Liberals' 29 percent support was close to a two-week high and the Conservatives were at a low of 34 percent. The Liberals' recent surge has made it ``very difficult'' for Harper to win a majority, said , a political science professor at Carleton University in Ottawa. For the Liberals, denying Harper a majority ``would be a success from the point of view of where they started at the beginning of the campaign,'' he said. Dion used two televised debates last week to intensify his attacks on Harper for not having a detailed plan to restore confidence in the economy. Harper called elections Sept. 7 saying Parliament was too gridlocked for his agenda to succeed, and on Sept. 26 indicated he needs a majority to guide the economy through an slump and the global credit crisis. Harper has argued Dion's plan to fund tax breaks through a new levy on pollution is ``risky'' and would cause budget deficits. ``Dion decided to turn a little more of the pointed attention toward the prime minister,'' said Andre Albinati, a former Liberal policy adviser and strategist. ``Voters got to see a side of him that wasn't through the lens of either the media or Conservative ads.'' Short of Majority Still, another daily poll by showed the Liberals clawing back to 24 percent from a low of 22 percent and the Conservatives falling to 34 percent. The Conservatives were 27 seats short of a majority when Harper called the election for Oct. 14 and need about 40 percent of the national vote to reverse that. Former Liberal Prime Minister , who led Canada's last three majority governments, got 38 percent of the popular vote in 1997 and 40 percent or higher in 1993 and 2000. Dion, 53, said in an Oct. 4 interview that Harper squandered Canada's budget surplus, putting the economy at risk. The Liberal plan to penalize carbon-based pollution to finance cuts in corporate and personal income taxes will boost the economy without raising overall tax bills, Dion said. ``We don't think Canadians need to pay more taxes,'' Dion said by phone from the province of Prince Edward Island, adding that Canada must be ``pro-active'' in helping manufacturers that are struggling. Liberal Plan The Liberals, should they gain power, would accelerate already-budgeted investments to stimulate the economy, Dion said. Still, the Liberal leader said he doesn't anticipate new fiscal measures until the next budget in early 2009, to ensure the country doesn't fall into deficit. The next government won't have much extra cash to work with anyway. Harper's administration has forecast a surplus of C$2.3 billion ($2.1 billion) for the fiscal year that started April 1, down 76 percent from the previous year. The is projected to drop to C$1.3 billion in 2009-10, the smallest since 1998, according the Finance Department. Canada's main stock index had the biggest drop since the ``Black Monday'' crash of October 1987 today, led by concern that a potential global recession will hurt commodity producers' profits. The fell as much as 11 percent today, and at 3:22 p.m. in Toronto was down 5.8 percent to 10,173.41. Canadian Dollar The currency fell 1.9 percent to C$1.1043 per U.S. dollar today from C$1.0829 on Oct. 3. Earlier, it weakened as much as 2.4 percent to the lowest since May 2007. At least three banks say Canada may slip into recession as the world's eighth-biggest economy suffers the effects of the U.S. slowdown and the deepening global financial crisis. , senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc., told a meeting convened by the Economic Club of Canada in Toronto today that the best-case scenario is ``just an ordinary recession.'' Shenfeld's comment followed a Bank of Nova Scotia report on Oct. 3 that predicted recessions for both the U.S. and Canada and 100 basis points in interest-rate reductions on both sides of the border. UBS AG said in a report today that Canada's economy would shrink this quarter and in the first quarter of 2009 as prices for commodities such as oil decline. `Fundamentally Optimistic' ``I remain fundamentally optimistic about the Canadian economy,'' Harper, 49, said at a campaign stop in Ottawa today when asked about the Scotiabank report. ``We aren't in a recession.'' Harper also repeated that Dion's plan may trigger a budget deficit and said he wants coordinated global action to tackle the credit crisis. Members of the are meeting in Washington this weekend and may work out solutions there, Harper said. BNP Paribas SA today agreed to buy Fortis's units in Belgium and Luxembourg for 14.5 billion euros ($19.5 billion) after a government rescue failed, while the German state and financial institutions put together a 50 billion-euro rescue package for Hypo Real Estate Holding AG. To contact the reporter on this story: in Ottawa at ; in Ottawa at . Last Updated: October 6, 2008 15:35 EDT More News | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
