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From: [email protected] (David M. Tate)
Subject: MVP '92 Revisited
Keywords: mlb, 04.20
Organization: Department of Industrial Engineering
Lines: 93
Tim Shippert recently posted summaries of last year's Defensive Average
stats in terms of the Linear Weights estimated run-value of defensive
performances, compared to league average. I've combined those with my
position-adjusted MLV numbers to come up with first-approximation total
run values for players last year. We can use these as a springboard for
reconsideration of the MVP award.
Major caveats: these numbers include no defensive park adjustment, so if
San Diego really is just a question of odd scoring or gopher holes in the
infield, that will cause some inaccuracies. The offensive numbers are
position-adjusted, but not park adjusted, so we have to deflate some and
inflate others to be fair. Finally, we still don't know what to do about
catchers, and I have no idea how to evaluate the defensive contributions
of Tony Phillips and Bip Roberts.
Having said that, there are still some surprises. Let's look National
League first. All numbers in total runs contributed over the season.
Player Offense Defense Total
Sandberg 44 32 76
Bonds 67 3 70
Walker 26 26 52
Justice 14 33 47
Daulton 44 ?? 44+?
Larkin 36 4 40
Grace 13 27 40
As I see it, these are the legitimate MVP candidates from last season.
If you deflate Sandberg's offense a wee bit for playing in Wrigley, you
get essentially a dead heat. Had Bonds been his usual defensive self, it
wouldn't have been close, but that apparently wasn't the case. Darren
Daulton needs 22 or more defensive runs to make up the offensive difference,
and I couldn't tell you whether that's easy or impossible. A good case
could be made for any of Sandberg, Bonds, or Daulton as top dude.
My personal vote: Bonds, Sandberg, Daulton, Walker, Justice.
In the American League:
Player Offense Defense Total
Ventura 22 34 56
Martinez 47 -1 46
B. Anderson 21 25 46
Thomas 47 -5 42
R. Henderson 25 16 41
Raines 17 23 40
Tettleton 33 ?? 33+?
OK, let's see a show of hands: how many of you picked Robin Ventura as top
player in the AL last year? I certainly didn't, but I'd have a hard time
arguing against him at this point. Yes, I know these numbers are only
approximate, but that's a big gap between him and the #2 guy. Also, those
of you who thought Rickey Henderson stank last year are out of your minds.
Once again, there's a catcher in the ointment. If calling a game is as
important as it might be, 23 runs is easy to make up (or give away). TAke
a guess, folks; I don't think we can do any better than that.
My personal vote (excluding pitchers):
Ventura, Tettleton, Anderson, Martinez, Henderson.
I'm a big Frank Thomas fan, but I have to admit to a bias in favor of
balanced offensive/defensive contribution, which should have a higher
leverage in W/L record than an equal shift that is lots of offense with
negative defense.
For the record:
Carlos Baerga 27 5 32
Roberto Alomar 35 -2 33
Forget it; it's a wash.
Let me also take this opportunity to admit that I was grossly wrong regarding
Don Mattingly's defense this past season. Don recovered brilliantly from his
weak '90 and '91 to end up with
Mattingly -1 17 16 runs
which is clearly an above-average first baseman. However, it's still 18 runs
behind Mark McGwire, 26 runs behind Frank Thomas, and 7 runs behind John
Olerud. On the other hand, it's ahead of Rafael Palmeiro, Cecil Fielder, and
every other AL first baseman not yet mentioned.
--
David M. Tate ([email protected]) | Greetings, sir, with bat not quick
member IIE, ORSA, TIMS, SABR | Hands not soft, eye not discerning
| And in Denver they call you a slugger?
"The Big Catullus" Galarraga | And compare you to my own Mattingly!?
