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From: [email protected] (David Robert Walker)
Subject: Re: Defensive Runs from DA (comments)
Keywords: DR
Organization: University of Virginia
Lines: 78
In article <[email protected]> [email protected] (Tim Shippert) writes:
> The reason I bothered doing this DR stuff was to see if I could
>determine the answer to the age-old question: "Is Jeff Blauser more
>valuable than Rafael Belliard".
Well, it looks like, just as Doug trumped Tim, beating him to the net
with his defensive analyses, so Tim has gotten in ahead of me.
The way I was doing it was a little different. Being me, of course, I
used equivalent averages to work out how many runs a player was worth,
and I calculated both rate of performance (fielding equivalent
average) and total performance (fielding equivalent runs). But I
compared, not to the average player, but the replacement player, and
here's why: because the positional adjustment comes built in to the
system. In the AL of 1992, the average SS is 32.9 runs above
replacement (RAR); cf, 31.6; 2B, 28.8; 3B, 26.3; LF, 26.0; RF, 24.6;
1B, 16.9. We may quibble with the exact numbers, but the order looks
substantially right.
In the equivalent average, I have always set league average to .235. I
had decided in hitting that the replacement level batter has an eqa of
.180; the name of that replacement level hitter, often as not, is
"Billy Ripken". I decided to let the replacement level fielder be the
same distance from .235 as .180, but in the opposite direction as I
have set it up; that makes for an eqa of .280. (Yes, I can add. Runs
are proportional to eqa squared; the difference between 180 squared
and 235 squared equals the difference to 279 squared, and I rounded
off for simplicity). An all-replacement fielding team would have:
Randy Milligan at first (.282), Willie Randolph (.269) at second, Leo
Gomez (.279) at third, Walt Weiss (.269) at short, Kevin Bass (.271)
in left, HoJo (.257) in center, and Eric Anthony (.277) in right. Ugh.
So, the total number of RAR for a player is the sum of his batting and
fielding RAR. I can rate them by total RAR, or RAR per some number of
batting outs, like 400. An average player has a total RAR of about 55,
30 batting, 25 fielding.
Total RAR (bat/field)
1. Bonds 152 (124/28) Ventura 124 (66/58)
2. Sandberg 143 (88/55) Thomas 122 (110/12)
3. Van Slyke 122 (91/31) Anderson 109 (75/34)
4. Grace 114 (70/44) Raines 100 (68/32)
5. Lankford 111 (76/35) Puckett 98 (76/22)
6. Pendleton 108 (71/37) Alomar 98 (75/23)
7. Finley 104 (70/34) Martinez E 97 (81/16)
8. Bagwell 101 (73/28) Mack 93 (70/23)
9. Butler 96 (74/22) McGwire 93 (79/14)
10 Sheffield 96 (85/11) Griffey 92 (70/22)
11 Larkin 96 (65/31) Devereaux 89 (56/34)
12 Grissom 95 (57/38) Henderson 88 (66/23)
13 Walker 94 (61/33) Listach 87 (50/37)
14 Justice 92 (52/40) Lofton 85 (46/39)
15 W. Clark 91 (73/18) Baerga 83 (55/28)
16 Kruk 82 (78/ 4) D. White 79 (39/40)
17 O. Smith 80 (46/34) Palmeiro 76 (54/22)
18 Gwynn 80 (47/33) Sierra 76 (52/24)
19 Hollins 80 (68/12) Carter 73 (57/17)
20 J. Bell 79 (42/37) Gonzalez 73 (60/13)
Notable entries in a per-400 batting out rating, NL: top 7 are Bonds,
177, LF; Sandberg, 130, 2b; Van Slyke, 114, cf; Grace, 107, 1b;
Larkin, 102, ss; Justice, 99, rf; Sheffield, 99, 3B. One at each
position measured! McGriff, despite +85 batting RAR, fifth in league,
finishes out of the top 20 due to a -13 in fielding. Last by position:
Galarraga 39, Stillwell -10, Hansen 30, Belliard 30 (Blauser gad a 69,
3rd in league), May 43, Dascenzo 34, Anthony 38.
In the AL, much-maligned Rickey Henderson was worth 120, second only
to Frank Thomas' 124; Ventura edges Edgar at third, 116-111; Grebeck
rates a potent 102!; Griffey edges Puckett as top CF, 93-90; Listach
nudges out Lofton among rookies, 82-80. And Alomar clearly outpoints
Baerga, 97-73. Last by position: Segui 10, Sojo 29, Palmer 22, Lewis
31, Polonia 40, Cuyler 26, V. Hayes 39.
All for now.
Clay D.
