data.3news-bydate.train.rec.sport.baseball.104940 Maven / Gradle / Ivy
From: [email protected] (Greg Spira)
Subject: Re: OBP hurt by sac flies (was Re: HBP? BB? BIG-CAT?)
Organization: University of Denver, Dept. of Math & Comp. Sci.
Lines: 68
[email protected] (scott mclure) writes:
>In article <[email protected]> [email protected] (Greg Spira) writes:
>>[email protected] (Jason Gische) writes:
>>
>>>In article <[email protected]> [email protected] (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>>>>I think Sac flies are the only way OBP can be below BA.
>>>>
>>
>>>Does this seem dumb to anyone else?
>>>(The fact not the comment.)
>>
>>>Why should a batter's OBP be hurt by a sac fly? Especially if sac
>>>bunts don't have the same effect, since they do the same thing,
>>>but sac flies usually score a run while bunts just advance a base.
>>
>>>But both of these situations involve the batter giving up an AB for
>>>the benefit of the team (sacrifice)? So why should it hurt their
>>>stats?
>>
>>The sac bunt is a purposeful act, ordered by the manager.
>>The batter does not go up "trying" to get a sac fly, and the
>>evidence available indicates that there is no such ability -
>>players can't will themselves to hit sac flies, they fly out
>>to the same place just as often when there's nobody on third.
>>
>>Greg
>>
>>
>Sorry, I gotta disagree here. Last time I played ball, I went up on
>several occasions intending to hit a fly ball deep enough to score the
>runner from third or advance a runner to third. It's relatively easy
>actually... you swing under the path of the ball you normally would to
>hit a good line drive. With fastballs it's very easy, much more
>difficult with good breaking balls. A good hitter with excellent bat
>control can voluntarily hit fly balls to the outfield at least, oh, 60%
>of the time?
You haven't been facing major league pitching.
Maybe more... you have to be good at the plate, and most
>of those guys are just as likely to opt for getting the base hit and
>helping their average as getting the sacrifice. The best example I know
>of is Jerry Willard in the 91 Series against Minnesota. All he had to
>do was put one in the OF and the game was over. He swung waaaaaay past
>parallel and accomplished (barely) getting the run in safely.
STATS did a little study in the 1993 Scoreboard book entitled "Can
you hit sacrifice flies on purpose?" A summary of the findings:
Over the 5 year period, sac-fly type fly balls were produced 17.6
percent of the time in situations where a sac fly was useful, and
17.7 percent of the time when a sac fly wasn't useful.
They looked at the leaders in sac flies, and found that the leaders
in sac flies - in other words, the guys you would expect to be good
at it it - hit sac fly type fly balls only 3% more often when they
needed to - a difference way too small to be the result of a skill.
Essentially, the players who hit a lot of sac flies seem to do
so because they hit hit sac fly type flies often, with and without
a runner on third.
STATS concludes "So it appears conclusive that hitters cannot hit
sacrifice flies on purpose - even if they practice in the bATTING
cage."
gREG