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Subject: Re: Bases loaded walk gives Reds win in 12: RedReport 4-21
From: [email protected] (David Grabiner)
Organization: /etc/organization
Nntp-Posting-Host: germain.harvard.edu
In-reply-to: [email protected]'s message of Thu, 22 Apr 1993 16:03:05 GMT
Lines: 55
In article , Mark Singer writes:
> In article [email protected] (robert and stimets) writes:
>>
>>
>>In a game that saw a little of everything--incredible defense, some power,
>>clutch pitching, and a little wildness--the Reds managed to overcome their
>>trademark lack of timely hitting in crucial situations...
> During spring training I made a similarly innoncent-looking comment
> about clutch hitting on this bb and the flames were flying. "no such
> thing as clutch hitting" they (the SDCN's) all screamed. I assumed
> they also meant there was no such thing as any kind of clutch performance,
> given their comments.
This is certainly not the case. There is no significant *ability* toi
perform in the clutch, but clutch performance certainly happens every
time there is a game-winning hit. The "clutch pitching" quoted above is
something which happened, not a claim that any particular player should
be expected to be a clutch pitcher.
> Over the past four seasons Sabo has had 59 hits in 259 abs defined as
> clutch situations (by The Scouting Report) for an average of .228.
> Over that same period he had another 1539 abs with 452 hits for an
> average of .294.
> According to the rest of the SDCN's, any differential such as this is
> completely and totally random and cannot be used for any reasonable
> inference, such as perhaps Perez should have used a pinch hitter in
> that situation.
Simple statistics tell me that there is a 2% chance an average clutch
hitter would have this large a split (the average decrease is 7 points,
standard deviation about 30). There will be such hitters in any league,
just as there will be hitters who hit poorly on Tuesdays.
And there is only a very weak correlation (.01 in my best study) between
clutch hitting in the last four years and clutch hitting this year,
probably because most of the clutch data is determinaed by luck rather
than any ability. *Based only on this data*, I don't see any reason to
pinch-hit for Sabo, or any other player who had been a poor clutch
hitter in the past.
But there are many other factors involved in a decision to pinch-hit.
Does the pinch-hitter give you a platoon advantage? (Any portion of
Sabo's clutch split that results from his platoon split is certainly a
real ability, even if it has nothing to do with clutch hitting.) Do you
have a singles hitter at the plate when you need a home run? Do you
have a curveball pitcher facing a batter who has trouble with curves?
--
David Grabiner, [email protected]
"We are sorry, but the number you have dialed is imaginary."
"Please rotate your phone 90 degrees and try again."
Disclaimer: I speak for no one and no one speaks for me.
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